Polling in October

Political polls seem to have been few and far between lately. A lot of people, especially people in politics, don’t seem to have much time for them. “The only poll that matters is the one on the day of the election” they say, but I think they’re wrong. Obviously polls at the moment have little value in as much as the next general election will probably not be held until 2009 – some people are contemplating a snap election next year but I think this is unlikely – and so the mood of the country at the moment doesn’t really matter; the mood of the county in 2009 is what will be important. Nevertheless, voting intention polls do give a flavour of the feelings of the country, what they think about the parties, their leaders and their actions. They show how people respond to words or deeds of the main political parties; whether they think they should be rewarded or punished for introducing this or that policy, or opposing the government on this or that issue.

The polling for the Liberal Democrats has been somewhat mixed since the last general election. In early 2005 we were averaging around the early to mid 20s. These were great figures for us and though the actual election result of 22.0% was perhaps a little lower than expected, I was perfectly content. Since then, however, our figures don’t seem to be quite so healthy. I can understand this. There are a number of factors which would lead to a decreased Lib Dem vote share: the turmoil over Charles Kennedy’s departure and the replacement of a very popular leader with one less so; the election of David Cameron as Tory party leader; the anti-war vote diminishing slightly once the general election was over. It’s not unsurprising that our figures have dropped, but the questions are: how far have they dropped, and will they recover?

It’s nearly eighteen months after the general election, and David Cameron and Ming Campbell have both been in power for several months. How have we been doing now that the honeymoon periods are over? Three polls have been published in the last week with huge differences in figures:

12th – 16th October (Ipsos MORI)
LAB: 37%
CON: 35%
LD: 18%

20th-22nd October (ICM)
LAB: 29%
CON: 39%
LD: 22%

20th – 22nd October (CR)
LAB: 32%
CON: 38%
LD: 14%

I won’t go into the differences too much: there are plenty of fantastic political sites out there who can analyse the results. But what do the results mean for us, the Lib Dems? Well, according to my UK Polling Report Swing Calculator, the results give us, the Lib Dems, a total of 45, 57 and 30 seats. It’s been a long time since a poll has given us a greater number of seats but I genuinely can’t see us losing that many seats at the next election. There are seats which we don’t hold, but can win, and we tend to be OK at holding on to those seats we have. I’d be very surprised if we lost a net total of more than, say, ten seats at the next election.

As for the rest of the parties, Ipsos gives a hung Parliament with Labour just a few seats short of a majority. ICM gives a hung Parliament with the Tories a few seats short of a majority. And CR gives a hung Parliament with no party close to a majority. A hung Parliament definitely seems to be on the cards and, in some ways, that seems to be what many people want. They’re not happy with labour and they’re convinced that they should be in power any longer, but at the same time they’re not entirely sure whether it’s time again for the Tories to regain power. There is, of course, a third option: a Liberal Democrat government, but it seems like people don’t particularly want that either! Of course, if we had proportional representation, things would be a little clearer, but that still doesn’t resolve the issue that no party currently has a clear lead over the other. The Tories are invariably ahead in the polls, but only ever by a few points and often this would still mean Labour getting more seats. What will happen at the next election? Ask me in 2009.